Nba Moneyline
For the uninitiated, betting on the money line simply means betting on which team you think will win the game. The money line is adjusted based on the spread to help books mitigate risk.
For example, a favorite of four points in the NBA might have a money line of around -184. This means you would need to wager $184 to win $100 if you bet on that team to win.
For underdogs it works a bit differently. A 4-point underdog in the NBA would have a money line listed at about +150. What this means is that you would win $150 for every $100 wagered on this team if they were to win the game outright.
Converting NBA Spreads to Their True Money Lines
What I’m really interested in is whether or not money line betting in the NBA is profitable. I went back over the results of over 20,000 games to find out how teams have performed on the money line. I wanted to see if it’s worth taking at any different spreads.
The chart below shows what the money line for NBA games at each spread should be based on the results of over 28,000 NBA games. It is important to note that these are the fair market values for each money line. Sportsbooks don’t offer fair market odds (otherwise they’d find it difficult to turn a profit). This way we can use the data to identify potential opportunities to take the money line when it is not properly priced. Since we have taken their built in edge out of each probability, we can feel confident that we are getting real value if the money line posted at our book is better than the price in the chart.
The more common the spread, the more accurate the expected win percentage is going to be. We have excluded spreads with less than 100 games to look at, but in reality you are better off considering those with a sample size of 500 or more games.
Money Line: Commonly used as a baseball and hockey wagering tool, basketball moneylines are popular for picking underdogs. There is no point spread linked to the moneyline. There is no point. One of the best features on the NBA Vegas Odds is the Open Line. This numbers consists of the first betting line received from one of our Las Vegas or Global Sportsbooks. The opening line varies depending on the sportsbook but it provides a clear-cut rating that the oddsmakers use.
Get the latest NBA odds, point spreads, money lines and over/unders for popular sportsbooks and view SportsLine's expert analysis of each upcoming game. NBA Money Line betting is the simplest and a popular form of NBA betting. With NBA money line betting you are simply picking which team will outright win the game. NBA Money Line odds will list the the favorite in a given game as a negative number (ie.200) that means you will have to bet that amount to win $100. Money line odds list the underdog as a positive number (i.e. +500) that means you will win.
Point Spread to Expected Win % & Money Line
The table below shows this information in more detail, including how often the favorite and underdog win outright at a given spread, then converting it to a win percentage and using that probability to create a true money line value. Books aren’t stupid, so it’s not common to find value on a regular basis across the board, however, there are some books that are not as sharp as others, or that must compensate for public action on one side and are forced to over adjust one way or the other. This are the situations that are best suited to use this data.
LineGamesWinsLossesFav Win %Dog Win %Fav MLDog ML-1110554256349.05%50.95%+104-104-1.5105054450651.81%48.19%-108+108-2151583268354.92%45.08%-122+122-2.5147888159759.61%40.39%-148+148-3167196071157.45%42.55%-135+135-3.5157296760561.51%38.49%-160+160-4160698562161.33%38.67%-159+159-4.51632105258064.46%35.54%-181+181-51617106055765.55%34.45%-190+190-5.51483100647767.84%32.16%-211+211-61514108343171.53%28.47%-251+251-6.5139599639971.40%28.60%-250+250-71379102835174.55%25.45%-293+293-7.5118188629575.02%24.98%-300+300-8114089824278.77%21.23%-371+371-8.5100079220879.20%20.80%-381+381-999081317782.12%17.88%-459+459-9.577563514081.94%18.06%-454+454-1075764411385.07%14.93%-570+570-10.56235467787.64%12.36%-709+709-115785037587.02%12.98%-671+671-11.54654085787.74%12.26%-716+716-124403875387.95%12.05%-730+730-12.53353072891.64%8.36%-1096+1096-133583203889.39%10.61%-842+842-13.52432281593.83%6.17%-1520+1520-142592411893.05%6.95%-1339+1339-14.5157152596.82%3.18%-3040+3040-15137130794.89%5.11%-1857+1857-15.5107102595.33%4.67%-2040+2040
Spread to Moneyline Conversion
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Odds CalculatorParlay CalculatorNBA Score CalculatorFollow on TwitterWe got back to cashing tickets yesterday, so let’s see if we can keep that going on the last day of NBA action before the All-Star Break. Tonight we’re looking at the game in Indiana involving the Pacers and the Denver Nuggets. Indiana finally got back to winning after defeating the Cavs yesterday but will be in for a much tougher test in this matchup.
Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers
Thursday, March 04, 2021 – 08:00 PM EST at Bankers Life Fieldhouse
Denver Is Hotter Than Fish Grease
When the Denver Nuggets are playing their best, they are a team capable of beating anyone in the NBA. Unfortunately, consistency is the one thing that Denver hasn't been able to master in the past few years. In fairness to the Nuggets, this season they have had to deal with significant roster turnover, which has been a difficult obstacle for them to overcome. They seem to have done that with a few difficult rotation moves by head coach Mike Malone, who isn't afraid to make those types of decisions.
Although the Nuggets have won three in a row, they started off February 5-7, which is a reminder to those of us investing in this team that we need to proceed with caution. Remember, although Denver is 20-15 on the season when it comes to covering spreads, they are below .500 (16-19). As for tonight's game, the Nuggets opened at -4 favorites. Most of the top online sportsbooks have moved up to -4.5, which seems to be the consensus across the board.
I'm taking Denver in this spot as road favorites, partly because of how incredibly hot they are and how inconsistent the Pacers have been, which I'll get to later. In the past two weeks, Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, and Michael Porter Jr. have been absolutely on fire.
Jokic has been one of the best players in the league all season, and the inconsistency that has plagued his game seems to be a thing of the past. Murray still struggles in that department, but in the last 2 weeks, he's averaging 30.9 per game on 58% shooting, including 53% from the field. Add to that Porter Jr.'s scoring output during that span (15 ppg on 53% from the field and 47% from three), and you have a team that can outscore the best of them.
Indiana Has Been Everything but Consistent Lately
As much time as I just spent pointing out how inconsistent Denver has been, the same applies to Indiana, especially this season. Before I talk about how bad they've been since February 1st, there's a more important point that needs to be made. The Pacers are one of the worst teams in the NBA at covering spreads. They've only covered 41% of the time, which is the 4th worst record in the NBA. If the Pacers fail to cover tonight, there's a good chance that the only team with a worse ATS record than them would be the Houston Rockets, who are an absolute dumpster fire.
The Pacers are 5-9 since the start of February, and there is no obvious reason for their bad play. A lot of people complained when Domantas Sabonis did not make the All-Star Team. While I do understand their argument, the last 5 weeks have proven that he's closer to a borderline All-Star as opposed to a clear-cut choice, which is why he didn't make it, and why he was chosen as a replacement. He's been fine, but his play has not translated to wins. This is not meant as an indictment on Sabonis, but rather his teammates. Other than Malcolm Brogdon, the rest of the Pacers simply have not been good enough.
I always hear Defensive Player of the Year talk for Myles Turner, which is something I can never quite comprehend. Yes, he's an elite shot-blocker (2.7 blocks per game), but what about his terrible rebounding (6.4 per game) numbers. In case you're confused about the correlation to defense, rebounding is the last act of defense, which is why they specifically call them defensive rebounds. Sabonis averages 11.1 rebounds per game with about 25% of the athletic ability that Turner possesses.
In my opinion, until the Pacers come to the realization that Sabonis and Turner should not be starting together, they will never take the next step. I think Jokic has his way with both of Indiana's big men en route to a road win for the Nuggets, which is my NBA pick for this game.
Nba Moneyline Betting
NBA Pick: Nuggets -4 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Nba Moneyline Bet
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.