Epsom Derby Betting 2018
Saxon Warrior is by Deep Impact ( The Hero
), who was by Sunday Silence out of the Alzao mare Wind in her Hair, and was something of a Japanese super horse. He won his first seven races, including the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas,2000 m, at Nakayama), the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby,2400 m, at Tokyo) and the Kikuka Sho(Japanese St. Leger Stakes,3000 m,at Kyoto). When landing the Kikuka Sho on November 23 2005, he become the first horse since Narita Brian 11 years earlier to complete the Japanese Triple crown; and the first unbeaten Japanese Triple crown winner since Shymboli Rudolf 21 years ago.
Deep Impact's progeny include four winners of the 12F Japanese Derby (Deep Brillante, Kizuna, Makahiki and Wagnerian) two winners of the 12F Japan Cup(Gentildonna and Shonan Pandorra), three winners of the Japanese Oaks (Gentildonna, Mikki Queen and Sinhalite) and one winner of the 15F Japanese St Leger (Satono Diamond).
Run left-handed over one mile, four furlongs and six yards, the derby is open to three-year-olds apart from geldings. The weight is nine stone, with fillies receiving a three pound allowance. In 2018 the prize money for the race was £1.5 million. England's most prestigious horse race, The Epsom Derby, takes place on Saturday 2 June, and thousands of punters will flock to Epsom to witness.
Saxon Warrior's dam is Maybe,who failed to get the trip in the 2012 Oaks. Saxon Warrior is a full brother to Pavlenko, formerly trained by O'Brien, who never won beyond 7fs. Punters are likely to see Galileo as Saxon Warrior's damsire and fall into the trap of believing that stamina is a given. However, as anybody familiar with the pedigrees of the likes of Galileo Gold, U S Navy Flag, Barney Roy and Night Of Thunder can testify, when serving as a damsire Galileo has tended to impart speed over stamina. Saxon Warrior won the Juddmonte Beresford Stakes on soft going (kept on well
) but that was over 1m and there is simply no guarantee that he will get a mile and a half on soft going. His draw in stall one is also not a great help, as he will be having to use up energy early to make up ground.
Deep Impact's Middle Distance Progeny
First things first, it would be true to say that Deep Impact's progeny do not have a great record when there is soft in the going. Who could forget theway in the which the very talented Satono Diamond floundered in the soft going in the Prix Foy and the Arc. Deep Brilliante did mange to win over 9fs on soft, but failed on yielding ground when tried over further, whilst the very enigmatic Kizuna, managed to win the Prix Niel on soft, despite the fact that he was out of a Storm cat mare! Mikki Queen and Sinhalite both managed to win on ground that was described as yeielding, but the remainder of Deep Impact's top perfoming progeny recorded their victories on going that was either good or firm. Deep Impact has managed to get a good middle distance horse when therehas been no obvious stamina on the damside.
Deep Impact's Middle Distance Progeny
| Horse | Sire | Dam | Max Dist (Won) | SDS* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makahiki | Deep Impact | Wikiwiki | 1m 4F | French Deputy (8.5f) |
| Wagnerian | Deep Impact | Miss Encore | 1m 4F | King Kamehameha (12f) |
| Satono Diamond | Deep Impact | Malpensa | 1m 7F | Orpen (7.6f) |
| Sinhalite | Deep Impact | Singhalese | 1m 4F | Singspiel (10.3f) |
| Gentildonna | Deep Impact | Donna Blini | 1m 4F | Bertolini (7.3f) |
| Mikki Queen | Deep Impact | Musical Way | 1m 4F | Gold Away (8.6f) |
| Kizuna | Deep Impact | Catequil | 1m 4F | Storm Cat (USA) (7.7f) |
| Shonan Pandora | Deep Impact | Cutie Gold | 1m 4F | French Deputy (USA) (8.5f) |
| Deep Brillante | Deep Impact | Love And Bubbles | 1m 4F | Loup Sauvage (USA) (7.7f) |
If he were to land the 2000 Guineas Epsom Derby double, Saxon Warrior would be joining a short and select list ofgreats, that includes the likes of Sir Ivor, Nijinsky and Nashwan. His time for the 2000 Guineas of 1:36.55 was close to that recordedby Nashwan and Sea the Stars in their winning years , and by way of equivalence faster than the times recorded by Gleneagles and Churchillin their respective winning years. However, his time was recorded on good ground, whilst when Nashwan and Sea the Stars won the 2000 Guineas the ground wasgood to firm. The boy got speed.
| Year | Guineas Time | 1968 | 1:39.26 | 1970 | 1:41.54 | 1989 | 1:36.44 | 2009 | 1:35.88 | 2012 | 1:42.46 | 2018 | 1:36.55 |
|---|
| Sire | Damsire | Young Rascal | Intello | Rock My Soul | Clodovil | 7.5f | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saxon Warrior | Deep Impact | Maybe | Galileo | 11.2f | |||
| The Pentagon | Galileo | Vadawina | Unfuwain | 10.7f | |||
| Delano Roosevelt | Galileo | Again | Danehill Dancer | 8.4f | |||
| Knight To Behold | Sea The Stars | Angel Of The Gwaun | Sadler's Wells | 11.4f | |||
| Hazapour | Shamardal | Hazarafa | Daylami | 11.6f | |||
| Dee Ex Bee | Farhh | Dubai Sunrise | Seeking The Gold | 8.7f | |||
| Sevenna Star | Redoute's Choice | Sevenna | Galileo | 11.2f | |||
| Masr | New Approach | Khawlah | Cape Cross | 9.3f | |||
| Kew Gardens | Galileo | Chelsea Rose | Cape Cross | Desert King 10.2f | |||
| Roaring Lion | Kitten's Joy | Vionnet | Street Sense | 9.9f |
DSI = Damsire Stamina Index: Stamina on the Dam's side.
Epsom Derby 2018: Will Roaring Lion Stay?
Epsom Derby Betting 2018 Predictions
Roaring Lion's dam Vionnet only won over 1m½f whilst his damsire Street Sense won BC Juvenile & KY Derby and was never tried over further than 1m2f. The problem for fans of Roaring Lion comes when you look at Street Senses's record as a damsire - in nuce, there is no stamina being imparted. You are very much left with the impression, based on running style and pedigree that he is going to be stretched on soft going.
Epsom Derby Betting 2018 Breeders Cup
| Horse | Sire | Dam's Sire | Max Dist (Won) | Stamina Dam Side |
| Hawkbill | Kitten's Joy | Giant's Causeway | 12F | 9.6F |
| Marzocco | Kitten's Joy | Dynaformer | 16F | 11.7f |
| Isharah | Kitten's Joy | Kingmambo | 12F | 9.9f |
| Pay Day Kitten | Kitten's Joy | Devil His Due | 12F | N/A |
| Cross Step | Kitten's Joy | Arch | 11.5f | 9.1f |
| A Shin Kildare | Kitten's Joy | With Approval | 12f | 9.9f |
| Roaring Lion | Kitten's Joy | Street Sense | 10.5f | 9.9f |
Running quickly through the rest of the field; there are no stamina question marks as regards Kew Gardens, Young Rascal, Hazapour (aka Pakistan Star),Sevenna Star,Masr (drawn best, will love the ground and will improve for the trip and ignored in the betting market) and The Pentagon. With the others you are guessing somewhat.
To cite this article: Epsom Derby 2018: A Pedigree Analysis.
(Published on Bettingmarket.com 2018. All Rights Reserved.)